Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Could the iPhone 5 save the US economy?

JP Morgan analyst Michael Feroli has writtn that Apple's iPhone 5 to be announced on September 12 could, by itself, grow the GDP between .25% and .5% in the fourth quarter.

Here is the math:
  1. Feroli says JP Morgan's other analysts say Apple will sell about 8 million phones for $600.
  2. Imported components should cost around $200 per phone, netting the GDP $400 per gadget.
  3. $400 x 8 million = $3.2 billion in GDP.
  4. $3.2 billion x four quarters = $12.8 billion.
  5. $12.8 billion = 33% boost.
  6. If the phone sells even better, the number gets closer to .5%.
.5% is a big boost. Most analysts predict the GDP will grow 1.5% to 2% in Q4.